赋予企业权力:转向气候适应能力的长期决策

In the face of escalating climate risks that affect companies and communities worldwide, the 世界商业 Council 可持续 发展 (WBCSD) recognizes the pressing need to foster innovative thinking and long-term strategic decision-making to build resilience. 在这篇insight文章中, 我们提出了“三个视界”框架, a tool designed to guide organizations in transitioning from short-term to long-term decision-making. This shift empowers companies to create strategies and take actions to not only 降低风险 but also unlock opportunities for long-term value creation.   

为什么企业需要增强对气候变化的适应能力? 

气候变化正在扰乱整个价值链的业务, 退化生态系统, 并日益影响到世界上最脆弱的人群.  

According to CDP analysis of 500 of the world’s biggest companies by market capitalization (G500), 215家公司估计的财务影响约为 未来几十年将面临3500亿至4000亿美元的自然气候风险. 另一项来自气候适应经济学的研究估计 40-70% of losses expected by 2030 could be avoided through cost-effective adaptation and resilience solutions. 此外，全球适应研究中心发现，投资 $1.从2020年到2030年，全球五个领域的8万亿美元将产生7万亿美元.总净收益为1万亿美元.  

现有的承诺和行动使我们面临违反1的风险.5 degrees Celsius of warming, and most companies remain unprepared for the impending climate impacts. 确保弹性, 将风险最小化、机会最大化的长期价值创造, 公司必须制定战略:  

1. Eliminate 90-95% of value chain emissions by 2050 (and 50% by 2030) and neutralize the remaining 5-10% emissions with permanent carbon removals 
2. Adapt and build resilience to the increasing climate impacts of extreme weather events and changing weather patterns 

Why is it currently challenging for business to make decisions to increase resilience to climate change? 

There is a low sense of urgency among many businesses and key decision-makers to act on adaptation in parallel with mitigation. Many businesses find it difficult to prioritize adaptation due to the uncertainty of climate risks and lack of understanding on the return on investment of adaptation efforts. 因此，作为WBCSD成员公司的声明: 

It’s challenging to make business decisions based on the levels of uncertainty that you might be seeing 30 years from now, 或者50年后. 

企业可以使用什么方法来做出适应气候变化的决策? 

有效降低风险, 从机会中获益, 提高对气候变化的整体适应能力, 企业需要实现在不确定性增加的情况下做出决策的方法. This entails using approaches that extend the typical 2-to-3-year decision-making horizon to 10, 20, 50年后的未来. 

公司可能会使用一系列的方法, 叫做远见和期货实践, to go beyond conventional plans and forecasts to enable leaders to work with agency in the face of future uncertainties. These practices go beyond forecasting to prepare companies for multiple possible futures, so companies can build internal adaptive capacity to manage emergent and unexpected conditions. 例如, the Task Force on Climate-Related Financial Disclosures (TCFD) recommends that companies use the foresight approach of scenario analysis to assess risks and build resilience to climate change. 

此外，将情景分析融入决策, companies should use a pathways approach to make climate-resilient decisions in the short, medium, 长期来看. 路径方法可以灵活地导航到一个有远见的目标, allowing for adaptive and transformative action to manage the increasing uncertainty and localized complexities of climate change. 此外, adaptation pathways enable companies to decide the right adaptation measure and investment at the right time along the climate resilience journey.  

企业如何实施路径方法来做出适应气候变化的决策?  

One framework companies can use to 实现 a pathways approach is Three Horizons (3H). This framework supports strategic conversations within and between organizations to move beyond incremental change to the systemic change that supports long-term value creation. It supports companies to identify choices between innovation that sustains our current system to the transformative innovation needed to build climate resilience. 如下面的视频中所述, 这个简单的框架可以帮助企业弄清楚:1)我们在哪里, 2)我们想去的地方, 3)如何到达那里.  

企业应该如何发展自己的适应路径方法?  

企业应该致力于开发灵活的适应途径, 降低风险, 并最大限度地利用与自然气候变化有关的机会. 为了实现这个目标, 公司应该计划, 实现, and monitor their adaptation strategies according to the recommendations in the figure below: 

To capture the greatest return on investment and competitive advantage of building resilience, companies need to integrate these transformative pathway approaches as early as possible. These forward-thinking and strategic approaches will ultimately enable early movers to effectively innovate and develop climate-resilient products and services that increase profitability while maximizing value creation for business, society, 与自然. 

从哪里可以获得关于这个主题的进一步支持?  

WBCSD

下载报告”战略弹性:商业入门，以获取有关远见、能力和业务应变能力的进一步信息. 此外，WBCSD的适应 & 复原力工作流程(通过气候和农业) & Food programs) will continue to support its member companies to navigate challenges related to building resilience and will develop business-focused how-to guidance on adaptation planning and pathways. In 2024, WBCSD will be releasing guidance to support senior business leaders to build resilience by adapting their organizations to manage physical risk and unlock new opportunities. For more information on how to get involved in the WBCSD’s Adaptation and Resilience workstream, 请与Madeline Ojakovoh联系 ojakovoh@hulab.net.  

未来的管理者  

Supporting resources, videos, and links to organizations using Three Horizons can be found at www.futurestewards.com.  

聚贤社 

聚贤社 (LQ)为再生的未来培养明智的领导者. LQ的炼金术是将不同的世界聚集在一起，合作进行有意义的变革. 作为一个社会企业, LQ花了20多年的时间培养聪明的领导者，他们正在建立一个更加公平的社会, 包容和可持续的世界. The work ranges from helping CEOs to align profit with purpose to facilitating cross-sector collaboration towards solutions to the defining challenges of the 21st century. 为三个地平线研讨会提供支持, 请联系Carolina Moeller, Leaders’Quest的合伙人 Carolina.Moeller@leadersquest.org罗莎·索默(Rosa Sommer)是美国领导人探索中心(Leaders’Quest)的主任   rosa.sommer@leadersquest.org.